CORSIA market dynamics take shape

Q3 was Oka’s strongest commercial quarter to date, with accelerating reach across the CORSIA market providing the team with an increasingly clear view of its emerging shape and bottlenecks. There is substantial project supply seeking a route to airlines, and Oka’s insurance capacity is growing to support it. The more difficult question is how quickly projects can complete the government and registry processes needed to turn that prospective supply into credits that airlines can use.

It was a question that featured heavily in panel discussions between Zachary Kane, our SVP Growth, and attendees at IETA’s Asia Climate Summit in Hong Kong in July. With CORSIA entering its second phase in January 2027, attention is shifting rapidly from whether sufficient supply will emerge to where the bottlenecks sit – and how insurance works to ease those pressures.

Oka has now reviewed more than 100 Letters of Authorisation and insured more than 20 million CORSIA credits. From that experience, we do not see insurance capacity as the constraint some market commentary has suggested.

Obtaining government authorisation is only one part of the process. Host countries must subsequently account for exported credits so that the same emissions reduction is not also counted towards their own climate targets. Those processes remain new, differ by country, and can take time. As airline demand grows, the speed at which authorised projects complete those final steps will be increasingly important to available CORSIA supply.

There is also a significant knowledge gap on the buyer side. For many airlines, carbon procurement is becoming a compliance requirement for the first time, bringing practical questions about eligible supply, pricing, insurance, and what happens if a host country ultimately fails to make the required adjustment.

We tackled those questions directly in September, when Stewart Duncan and Abatable’s Juan Carlos Arredondo Brun co-hosted a webinar attended by more than 20 airlines seeking to understand how CORSIA insurance works: what it protects against, how claims would operate, and where risk sits between airlines, developers, governments, and insurers. The webinar is available to watch on demand, alongside a written Q&A covering the biggest questions asked by attendees.

New leadership for the next phase

Q3 also marked a leadership transition for Oka. Chris Slater has moved from CEO to Founder and Adviser, stepping back from day-to-day management to prioritise his health and family.

Chris founded Oka in 2022 and has led its development from an idea into a Lloyd’s business operating at the centre of the emerging carbon insurance market. We thank him for his leadership, vision, and commitment, all of which will remain invaluable as he continues to help drive strategy and support key customer and lineslip relationships.

Stewart Duncan has taken responsibility for the business as Managing Director. He has been part of Oka from the beginning and has led much of the product, data, and technology work underpinning the company. In particular, he has played a central role in taking CAP from an early product concept to a live CORSIA solution used across millions of credits, working closely with developers, registries, governments, brokers, and other market participants along the way.

Stewart remains supported by a committed team that combines the commercial, product, and underwriting experience behind Oka’s progress to date.

We enter Q4 with more than six million additional credits already quoted and our reversal risk underwriting expertise and capacity poised to scale to meet new demand. Now, our focus is on converting that pipeline, helping more authorised credits reach buyers, and proving new insurance structures in live transactions.